Strava Estimated Power vs Real Power

Now, I’ve always figured that the Strava one works by some kind of weighted algorithm thing, utilising the data that it has from the GPS and your pre programmed data ie; time, elevation change, distance, speed, maybe temperature?, weight (rider and bike) and probably some coefficients based on whether its offroad or not for rolling resistance etc etc.

Now, the biggie it can’t get is wind resistance, so I figured that Strava would maybe be pretty accurate in some conditions and not others. ie a consistent long climb with a consistent average surface, no wind would yeild accurate results because effectively you are reducing the unknown variables wheras if you are say pounding along on the flat with a big head or tailwind it’s gonna be wayyyyyy out.

OK, so to test it out, I went for a ride in Upper Hutt. I had my Powertap wheel on, and got a Garmin file with that data, and also turned on the Strava app on my iphone in my pocket, so it would record the exact same ride but I’d be able to see what the difference was under different conditions.

I did test sections on 2 climbs, one short and steep and one longer and less steep, both at and below FTP, on the flat, and a max power sprinting test.

This is pretty non scientific but I think decent enough. Nerds out there, feel free to tell me the 10,000 things I’m doing wrong here…Actually don’t.

OK, so here’s the tests and what happened:

1:  Approx. 5 minute climb at around FTP.  (Little head wind, around 5% avg. grade)

Powertap average watts = 356.  Strava estimate = 374. Strava = 5.1% over

2: Approx. 1 minute climb at around FTP. (Little head wind, around 6% avg. grade)

Powertap average watts = 378.  Strava estimate = 279. Strava = 35.5% under

3: On the flat at FTP. (For this one, I tried to negate wind by riding the same section one way, then the other and averaging the two)